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Economy · 4 min read

National Debt Hits $40 Trillion. What Comes Next?

The U.S. national debt has crossed $40 trillion, a milestone that sounds almost too large to comprehend.

But the more important question isn't whether $40 trillion is a big number. It's what Washington is willing to do about it.

The Congressional Budget Office projects another large federal deficit in 2026, while interest on the debt has become one of the government's largest expenses. That means an increasing share of federal revenue goes toward financing decisions already made rather than paying for today's priorities.

And this is one issue where neither political party gets to claim a spotless record.

From the Left: Raise More Revenue

The argument from the left generally starts with a question: Who should bear the burden of reducing the deficit?

Democrats and progressives tend to favor generating additional revenue from corporations and higher-income households rather than making substantial reductions to Social Security, Medicare and programs benefiting middle- and lower-income Americans.

There's also an argument that not all government spending should be viewed equally. Investments in infrastructure, education, technology and other areas that increase economic growth could ultimately improve the country's fiscal position.

From this perspective, cutting spending too aggressively can create its own economic problems.

From the Right: Washington Spends Too Much

Conservatives generally diagnose the problem differently.

The federal government routinely spends significantly more than it collects. Raising taxes without addressing that underlying imbalance, they argue, simply gives Washington more money to spend.

The conservative prescription typically includes reducing discretionary spending, eliminating waste, reforming entitlement programs and pursuing policies designed to accelerate private-sector economic growth.

Lower taxes and stronger economic growth, proponents argue, can expand the tax base without continually increasing tax rates.

Down the Middle: The Math Is Uncomfortable

Here's where the politics runs into arithmetic.

Balancing the federal budget becomes extraordinarily difficult if policymakers simultaneously rule out tax increases, major spending reductions and changes to large federal programs.

That's why $40 trillion matters.

The debate isn't simply about whether America should have higher taxes or lower spending. It's about determining which combination of revenue, spending restraint, economic growth and program reform can realistically change the trajectory.

There are legitimate disagreements over how to accomplish that.

What becomes harder to argue is that the country can indefinitely run large annual deficits without consequences.

The Question Washington Doesn't Like Asking

Every solution creates winners and losers.

Raise taxes, and someone pays more.

Cut programs, and someone receives less.

Reform Social Security or Medicare, and politically popular benefits could change.

Do nothing, and future taxpayers inherit an increasingly expensive problem.

That's the real Down the Middle question:

If Washington became serious about reducing the national debt, what would you be willing to accept—higher taxes, lower government spending, changes to major federal programs, or some combination of all three?

💡 See the same fiscal story spun hard left and hard right? That's exactly what Down the Middle is built for — compare the framing, then read the neutral summary.

Sources: U.S. Treasury Department and Congressional Budget Office.

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